Does digital data offer indicators that can be used to monitor marketing effectiveness and predict box office success even before awareness turns into intent? Moviepilot — which studies social data and box office trends — analyzes this weekend’s new movies across Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Google over the seven days leading up to their release, when marketing campaigns are at their peak.
“The Boss,” Universal
Moviepilot Prediction: $20 million
While “Batman v Superman” has dominated the last two frames, the superheroes look to have a battle on their hands to retain the top spot this week, with Melissa McCarthy’s “The Boss” looking to open with at least $20 million. McCarthy has a great box office track record, and that doesn’t look like it’ll change this weekend. She has stood front and center of the marketing campaign as the main selling point of the movie, including appearing on AOL Build. “The Boss” has clocked up over 30 million views across Facebook and YouTube with very positive sentiment, so we’d expect this to be another McCarthy hit with an opening of at least $20 million.
“Hardcore Henry,” STX
Moviepilot Prediction: $10 million
The wide release of “Hardcore Henry” has been hotly anticipated since STX picked up the movie at the Toronto Film Festival, and expectation has only risen since showings at SXSW last month. The movie is unique as it was shot from a first-person perspective as if it were a video game, so marketing has sought to engage movie lovers looking for a brand-new experience as well as gamers familiar with romping through action from the protagonist’s perspective.
The gaming audience of predominantly 17-to 34-year-old males can be a tricky one to reach via traditional marketing methods, so “Hardcore Henry” has turned to more inventive methods to get their attention. The trailer debuted as part of two hours of special programming with video game streaming service Twitch, and there is even a playable character from “Hardcore Henry” available for PayDay 2. There’s also gameplay videos on Machinima that re-create scenes from the trailer and have scored millions of views. “Hardcore Henry” has reached out to broader audiences by sponsoring the Snap story from Ultra Music Festival in Miami last month as well as UFC 196, among other sports partnerships.
This movie is a unique proposition and should do well with moviegoers looking for something new, as well as young male audiences not drawn in by “The Boss,” so we’d expect to see an opening around $10 million.
Tobias Bauckhage (@tbauckhage) is co-founder and CEO of moviepilot.com, a social-media-driven movie community reaching more than 29 million Facebook fans and 30 million monthly unique users. Based on community data, Moviepilot helps studios to optimize their social media campaigns, identifying, analyzing and activating the right audiences. The company works with studios like Focus Features, 20th Century Fox and A24.