Does digital data offer indicators that can be used to monitor marketing effectiveness and predict box office success even before awareness turns into intent? Moviepilot – which studies social data and box office trends – analyzes this weekend’s new movies across Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Google (the methodology behind the numbers is laid out in the appendix below) over the seven days leading up to their release, when marketing campaigns are at their peak.
The Angry Birds Movie, Sony
Moviepilot Prediction: $41 million
At the modern box office, IP is king, allowing studios to build mega brands and cross-pollinate audiences from other platforms and media. “The Angry Birds Movie” is inspired by the incredibly popular mobile game and will be looking to repeat the resounding success of “The Lego Movie,” which scored both a financial victory and critical acclaim.
The movie builds a bridge to the app by allowing players to unlock new levels in the mobile game thanks to a secret bird hidden in the credits. The app also provides the movie with a captive audience for targeting, as well as a host of characters and faces familiar to worldwide audiences. Additionally there were “Angry Birds” filters in the Giphy camera app (similar to a Snapchat filter where you superimpose an image over what you’re filming or photographing) and an amusing Angrify Me app that turns users into Angry Birds themselves!
Thanks to its familiar feel and family appeal, we expect to see “Angry Birds” open in the same realm as a popular franchise like “How to Train Your Dragon 2,” and score more than $40 million this weekend.
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, Universal
Moviepilot Prediction: $33 million
Seth Rogen and Zac Efron landed a massive hit with the original “Neighbors” thanks to great writing, a great performance from the cast and an original premise. The beauty of the movie’s plot means that “Neighbors 2” has two core audiences, both college-age kids and older cinemagoers who have been there and done that. Digital initiatives such as partnerships with Drunk Mode app and a heavy Snapchat presence appeal to the former, while pushing the cast and strong gags to the fore caters to the latter. It will be hard for this sequel to repeat the runaway success of the original, but fun previews and a perennially popular cast should see it open north of $30 million.
The Nice Guys, Warner Bros.
Moviepilot Prediction: $15 million
Shane Black is back with a brand new buddy comedy, this time starring the unlikely pairing of Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling. Our heroes must work together to solve a mystery in a stylish 70s setting, and judging from the previews and reviews, this will be a worthy entry in the genre.
Shane himself took to Reddit for an AMA, looking to activate a fan base cultivated over his long career. Gosling and Crowe have also shouldered much of the campaign. Fans were able to use a Snapchat filter yesterday to make themselves look like Crowe’s character in the movie, which was also picked up by notables such as Eli Roth.
“The Nice Guys” will pull in the older audiences looking for a chuckle who don’t fancy the brand of humor in “Neighbors 2.” the comedy should be good for an opening in the mid-teens.
Tobias Bauckhage (@tbauckhage) is co-founder and CEO of moviepilot.com, a social-media-driven movie community reaching over 29 million Facebook fans and 30 million monthly unique users. Based on community data, Moviepilot helps studios to optimize their social media campaigns, identifying, analyzing and activating the right audiences. The company works with studios like Focus Features, 20th Century Fox and A24.