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Digital Tracking: ‘Batman v Superman’ v the Box Office

How Moviepilot sees this week’s wide releases shaping up on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Google

 Does digital data offer indicators that can be used to monitor marketing effectiveness and predict box office success even before awareness turns into intent? Moviepilot — which studies social data and box office trends — analyzes this weekend’s new movies across Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and Google over the seven days leading up to their release, when marketing campaigns are at their peak.

“Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice,” Warner Bros
Moviepilot Prediction: $165 million

Anticipation for this clash of the superhero titans has been fevered ever since the first image of Ben Affleck in the new Batsuit emerged in 2013. Those fanboy fires were stoked even further by the first footage, which dropped at San Diego Comic Con, and the movie’s trailers have gone on to rack up an astonishing count of overall 300 million views across Facebook and YouTube – sentiment has also been positive, with an average 0.59% Buzz score on YouTube coming in at almost double the average.

The digital marketing campaign hit audiences on all fronts; with custom emojis across Twitter, stickers on the popular Bitmoji app, Snapchat lenses and a custom Snapchat pop-up channel, in addition to Facebook stickers and a custom Facebook 360 interactive exploration of the Batmobile.

Popular on Variety

Furthermore, the digital campaign grounded the movie in the real world by allowing fans to explore Wayne Manor using Google Street View, depicting Lex Luthor as a real-life figure in a Fortune profile, an interview in Wired and most recently launching LexCorp’s Lex/OS, the world’s most secure computer operating system.

In addition, the digital marketing campaign broke new ground by partnering with Amazon and the Amazon Echo to allow users to solve the mystery surrounding the murders of Thomas and Martha Wayne in the interactive adventure, “The Wayne Investigation.”

“Batman v Superman” is headed for a monstrous opening, riding a huge wave of anticipation and over 1.2 million tweets this week along. We see justice dawning to well over $150 million for the weekend.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2,” Universal
Moviepilot Prediction: $19 million

Thirteen years after the first helping, “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” returns for another slice of family comedy. While “Batman v Superman” will no doubt take the weekend, “My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2” will provide a welcome antidote to the superhero blockbusters and draw in older audiences and females as a timely piece of counterprogramming.

The cast and creator of the movie have featured heavily in the marketing, taking part in a live Q&A on Periscope, and some of the funnier parts of the sequel have been featured by Buzzfeed. The highlight from the campaign is the hilarious “Awkward Wedding Photos Contest” – we all have a few potential entries for this one!

“My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2” should be set for a nice take around the $20 million mark for the weekend.

Tobias Bauckhage (@tbauckhage) is co-founder and CEO of moviepilot.com, a social-media-driven movie community reaching over 29 million Facebook fans and 30 million monthly unique users. Based on community data, Moviepilot helps studios to optimize their social media campaigns, identifying, analyzing and activating the right audiences. The company works with studios like Focus Features, 20th Century Fox and A24.

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