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Some awards watchers hope the Oscar race is coming into focus, now that nominations for SAG Awards and the Golden Globes have been announced. In truth, the focus may not arrive until the Feb. 28 Academy Awards ceremony.

That’s partly because 2015 awards attention has been all over the map. But, more important, it’s because members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences are a unique group, who always manage to offer surprises and contradict the early “bellwethers.”

“Carol,” “Room,”Mad Max: Fury Road” and “The Big Short” are among the titles that have done well in multiple votings (aside from SAG and the Globes, this includes the L.A. and New York film critics).

A few other films have been peripheral so far, but promise to loom large in Oscar noms, such as “The Martian,” “Brooklyn,” “Creed” and “Bridge of Spies.” That’s because they’re brilliantly crafted — and because Oscar has 10 categories that salute artisan work, many more than other orgs (Those categories include production design, hair and makeup, editing, sound editing, sound mixing and visual effects).

It’s important to remember that there are three distinct groups in the Oscar derby: The early voting organizations, pundits/bloggers and Academy voters. Sometimes their tastes and thinking overlap, but ultimately, they are very different.

The Academy consistently offers surprises: Last year, “American Sniper” scored six Oscar noms, after being shortchanged by most early awards. Over the years, Oscar has given surprise boosts to diverse films, ranging from “The Blind Side” to “The Wolf of Wall Street,” and also including the whopping ten nominations for the Coen brothers’ “True Grit.”

There is no overlap between the Academy and voters in critics groups or the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. There is minimal overlap between the SAG nom-com and the Acad’s acting branch. Because of the differences, it’s surprising they are often similar. Last year, 80% of SAG Award nominees were also cited for Oscars and all of the winners were identical. But it’s doubtful that the similarities will be so strong this year.

The media often talks about awards momentum, but it doesn’t work that way. This isn’t the presidential race, where a primary election can guarantee points to a candidate. In Oscar, there are no points. “The Social Network” and “Boyhood” earned multiple best picture wins from critics, but didn’t translate that into an Oscar.

After the Wednesday SAG Award noms, the public was mystified by the omission of Will Smith, Matt Damon, Jennifer Lawrence, Sylvester Stallone and Jane Fonda. However, the following day, all of them were recognized by the Globes. It’s a competitive year, so it’s possible all five got a lot of votes from SAG-AFTRA and missed out by a single vote. In other words, they might have awards “momentum” without being aware of it.

In a year that’s so wide open, studio executives and awards strategists are studying the results harder than usual. In fact, they should be doing the opposite. Every contender who has been mentioned so far should enjoy the attention without trying to understand the logic. And all of those who’ve been ignored — a notable list including Michael Keaton (“Spotlight”), F. Gary Gray (“Straight Outta Compton”) and Charlotte Rampling (“45 Years”), among many others — should not give up hope. Because as “American Sniper” and Yogi Berra can attest, it ain’t over till it’s over.