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The Hollywood Foreign Press Association on Thursday morning announces its Golden Globe nominations, which usually include a few curve balls. The celebrity-friendly group divides best picture into both drama (which is competitive this year) and musical/comedy categories (not as much). Here are my predictions, along with alternate takes from Variety‘s Jenelle Riley and Ramin Setoodeh.

The Globes are often a reliable predictor of Oscar nominations, but they don’t line up exactly. Even if movies like “Foxcatcher,” “Interstellar,” “American Sniper” and “Whiplash” don’t show up on their list, they might still get votes from more serious-minded Academy voters.

Predictions:

Motion Picture Drama
“Boyhood”
“The Imitation Game”
“Selma”
“The Theory of Everything”
“Unbroken”
Setoodeh: I think there will be six nominees in this category, with “Foxcatcher” included.
Riley: I predict “American Sniper” will be nominated, at the expense of “The Theory of Everything.”

Actor in a Drama
Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher”)
Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Imitation Game”)
Jake Gyllenhaal (“Nightcrawler”)
David Oyelowo (“Selma”)
Eddie Redmayne (“Theory of Everything”)
Setoodeh: Unfortunately, I think that the surprise will be a David Oyelowo snub. They will nominate Bradley Cooper (“American Sniper”) in that spot instead, and also have Oscar Isaac (“A Most Violent Year”) as a sixth nominee.
Riley: I predict Gyllenhaal will be replaced by Cooper.

Actress in a Drama
Marion Cotillard (“Two Days, One Night”)
Felicity Jones (“Theory of Everything”)
Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”)
Rosamund Pike (“Gone Girl”)
Reese Witherspoon (“Wild”)
Setoodeh: I’m guessing Jennifer Aniston (“Cake”) over Marion Cotillard.
Riley: I also believe Aniston will sneak in, displacing Pike.

Motion Picture Comedy
“Big Eyes”
“Birdman”
“Grand Budapest Hotel”
“Inherent Vice”
“Into the Woods”
Setoodeh: I predict they will nominate “St. Vincent” over “Inherent Vice,” which is P.T. Anderson’s weakest film, and “Annie” instead of “Big Eyes” Remember, the Globes nominated “Burlesque” for best picture.
Riley: I also think “St. Vincent” will replace “Inherent Vice.” And I wouldn’t count out “Pride,” perhaps in place of “Big Eyes.”

Actor in a Musical or Comedy
Ralph Fiennes (“Grand Budapest Hotel”)
Michael Keaton (“Birdman”)
Bill Murray (“St. Vincent”)
Bill Nighy (“Pride”)
Al Pacino (“The Humbling”)
Setoodeh: I predict Chris Rock (“Top Five”) instead of Bill Nighy, and Bill Hader (“Skeleton Twins”) instead of Al Pacino. Also: add James Corden (“Into the Woods”) as a sixth nominee.
Riley: I predict Rock will supplant Nighy.

Actress in a Musical or Comedy
Amy Adams (“Big Eyes”)
Emily Blunt (“Into the Woods”)
Rosario Dawson (“Top Five”)
Keira Knightley (“Begin Again”)
Melissa McCarthy (“St. Vincent”)
Setoodeh: I predict Kristen Wiig (“The Skeleton Twins”) instead of Melissa McCarthy, and Cameron Diaz (“Annie”) instead of Rosario Dawson—providing Diaz is submitted as lead.
Riley: I think Jenny Slate (“Obvious Child”) will supplant Knightley and Angelina Jolie (“Maleficent”) will supplant Blunt.
Setoodeh: No! #TeamBeginAgain