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2014 Oscars Predictions: Weekly Temperature Gauge (Updated)

Variety’s awards editor Tim Gray has been regularly offering a rundown of the warming trends and cold fronts in our weekly “Temperature Gauge,” in addition to  projections in eight major awards categories. The fortunes have risen and fallen, but with Oscar ballots due Feb. 25, the race is in its last lap.

What’s New This Week?

With Oscars looming on March 2, several races are taking shape, including two of the most interesting categories this year: screenplay.

RISING: John Ridley and “12 Years a Slave” won the USC Scripter award for adaptation, which has predicted Oscar in five of the last six years.

COOLING: Woody Allen, “Blue Jasmine.” He wasn’t a front-runner for original, but all the publicity won’t help.

STEADY: Billy Ray galvanized fans of “Captain Phillips” when he won the WGA Asward for adapted script.

Here’s Variety‘s list of possible Oscar winners, but don’t forget: Academy voters always have a few surprises.

BEST PICTURE

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • But don’t discount: Gravity

DIRECTOR

  • Alfonso Cuaron
  • But don’t discount: Steve McQueen

ACTOR

  • Matthew McConaughey
  • But don’t discount: Leonardo DiCaprio

ACTRESS

  • Cate Blanchett
  • But don’t discount: Sandra Bullock

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • Her
  • But don’t discount: Nebraska

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • But don’t discount: Philomena

SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Jared Leto
  • But don’t discount: Barkhad Abdi

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Lupita Nyong’o
  • But don’t discount: June Squibb

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