Also at The Vote: Producers Guild kicks off big awards weekend.
The SAG individual film awards have been a reliable precursor for the Oscar lead and supporting acting races, but the ensemble award doesn’t necessarily translate into a best picture Oscar win. SAG ensemble titlists have won best picture six of the past 10 years, with last year’s honoree “The Help” becoming the latest Oscar bridesmaid.
On the other hand, three of four individual SAG film winners last year followed their victories with Oscars (Viola Davis being supplanted by Meryl Streep), while all four did the year before.
Overall, “Lincoln” and “Silver Linings Playbook” have the potential to be the biggest winners Sunday with four nominations apiece.
Let’s take a look at the categories, first in film and then in television …
Film ensemble: “Argo” has certainly become central in this conversation, seemingly benefiting from Ben Affleck’s Oscar-directing shutout, but “Lincoln” and “Silver” carry the weight of their truo of acting noms, while “Les Miserables” and even “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” lurk. Last year’s PGA winner, “The Artist,” was a runner-up here.
Film lead actor: It’s safe to say that anyone but Daniel Day-Lewis winning would be an upset, but Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Denzel Washington and the lone Oscar omission here, John Hawkes, surely have their fans.
Film lead actress: Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence have the most buzz, though this is a chance to give Naomi Watts or Oscar castaways Marion Cotillard or Helen Mirren a look. Lawrence is coming off a mixed blessing of an apperance on “Saturday Night Live.”
Film supporting actor: This is a tough category, featuring Alan Arkin, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones joined by the only non-Oscar nominee, Javier Bardem.
Film supporting actress: Is Anne Hathaway vulnerable to Sally Field? (Or vice-versa?) We’ll soon find out, with Helen Hunt and two SAG double-nominees, Nicole Kidman and Maggie Smith, also in the running.
Film stunt: Take your pick among “The Amazing Spider-Man,” “The Bourne Legacy,” “The Dark Knight Rises,” “Les Miserables” and “Skyfall.”
TV drama ensemble: In contrast to the PGAs, “Boardwalk Empire” gets a chance here to defend its title against Emmy champ “Homeland” and category newcomer “Downton Abbey,” with “Breaking Bad” and “Mad Men” going, “Remember us?”
TV comedy ensemble: Reigning SAG and Emmy king “Modern Family” will go up against farewell bids from “30 Rock” and “The Office,” as well as “The Big Bang Theory,” “Glee” and “Nurse Jackie.”
TV drama actor: Though Damian Lewis has freshly crafted Emmy and Golden Globe awards, don’t underestimate Steve Buscemi, who has four SAG Awards to his name, including last year’s in this category – not to mention Bryan Cranston, Jon Hamm or a newcomer who figures to get some looks, Jeff Daniels of “The Newsroom.”
TV drama actress: Similarly, this would seem to be Claire Danes’ award to lose, but last year’s winner, Jessica Lange, remains – as does the ever-impressive Smith and Julianna Marguiles, the category’s all-time wins leader. And let’s not forget Lady Mary herself, Michelle Dockery.
TV comedy male: Will Alec Baldwin make it a perfect seven in a row in his final year on “30 Rock,” or will Ty Burrell, Louis C.K., Jim Parsons or Eric Stonestreet. (Interestingly, last year’s Emmy winner, Jon Cryer, was not nominated here.) Only three people have won this category since 2001: Sean Hayes, Tony Shalhoub and Baldwin.
TV comedy female: The ceaselessly popular Betty White goes for a repeat win against Edie Falco (whose 11 indivudual SAG noms are a record for an actress), Golden Globes hosts Tina Fey and the overdue Amy Poehler, and Sofia Vergara. “Modern Family,” by the way, has yet to win an individual SAG Award. As in the category of male comedy actor, the reigning Emmy winner, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, was not invited to the nominations party.
TV movie-mini actor: Kevin Costner is the big fish in a pond that features co-star Bill Paxton, along with Woody Harrelson and Ed Harris of “Game Change” and Clive Owen of “Hemingway & Gellhorn.”
TV movie-mini actress: Julianne Moore’s extended awards dance card with “Game Change” can climax here, unless Kidman, Charlotte Rampling (“Restless”), Sigourney Weaver (“Political Animals”) or Alfre Woodard (“Steel Magnolias”) can break through.
TV stunt: Last year’s winner, “Game of Thrones,” goes up against “Boardwalk,” “Breaking,” Sons of Anarchy” and “The Walking Dead.”