Golden Globe Film Predictions: Who Will Win?

hacksaw ridge la la land Golden
Courtesy of Summit Entertainment

The 74th annual Golden Globe Awards are set for Sunday, Jan. 8. Last year brought a list of film winners that kept the Oscar race exciting, from “The Martian” walking away with the comedy motion picture prize to “Steve Jobs” landing a pair of unexpected honors. How will the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. shake things up this year? Academy members will have ballots in hand, and will no doubt be watching with the rest of us.

Here are my picks in the film races. Tune in to see how right (or wrong) I was Sunday night.

Motion Picture – Drama
Most are betting on “Moonlight” here, and indeed, the film is well-liked within the group. But it may be in their minds more than their hearts. “Manchester by the Sea” is lurking, too. But I’m going out on a limb and calling it for “Hacksaw Ridge,” which is very strong with HFPA members and could make it a momentous night for Lionsgate. (More on why in a moment…)
Prediction: “Hacksaw Ridge”

Actor – Drama
Just like in the Oscar race, this feels like it’s between Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) and Denzel Washington (“Fences”). I’d be tempted to lean away from Affleck, who has dominated the circuit thoroughly, but Washington was just honored by the HFPA with the Cecil B. DeMille Award last year.
Prediction: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”

Actress – Drama
Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”) and Natalie Portman (“Jackie”) are gridlocked on the regional critics circuit, having won far and away the most prizes so far. Huppert’s film has a shot in the foreign language category, while this is the only place to honor “Jackie.” I’m tempted to go in a different direction, though, with “Arrival” star Amy Adams. She’s a darling with the group (seven nominations and two wins) and it’s just the kind of “surprise” that makes sense at the Golden Globes.
Prediction: Amy Adams, “Arrival”

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Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Regarding that note about a momentous night for Lionsgate, the studio’s “La La Land” is probably the biggest lock of the night. Due respect to the other nominees in the category, but it’s not even a contest. Could the company pull off what Fox did last year (and Paramount in 2006): winning both best picture prizes?
Prediction: “La La Land”

Actor – Musical or Comedy
It almost seems too easy to pick “La La Land’s” Ryan Gosling here. Hugh Grant in “Florence Foster Jenkins” wouldn’t be a crazy bet, giving him some added fuel for his supporting Oscar prospects. And there’s Ryan Reynolds in “Deadpool,” Fox’s irreverent comic book adaptation that has come on strong as a fun player this awards season. Grant is quite a charmer and they like him a lot. I’ll go against the grain and pick him.
Prediction: Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Actress – Musical or Comedy
Just like in the best picture field, this is a no-brainer. Emma Stone can go ahead and put the finishing touches on her speech.
Prediction: Emma Stone, “La La Land”

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”) has been nearly as dominant as Casey Affleck on the critics’ circuit so far. This feels like a proper place to award his movie, whether it wins best picture or not. But if there’s a spoiler in our midst, it might just be “Hell or High Water’s” Jeff Bridges.
Prediction: Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”

Supporting Actress
I feel pretty confident sticking with Viola Davis, whose “Fences” performance really blows away the competition this year. But I wouldn’t put it past the HFPA to go in an unexpected direction here, like Nicole Kidman in “Lion.”
Prediction: Viola Davis, “Fences”

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Director
They like to spread the wealth but nevertheless, this feels like a race between the helmers of the two films I’m picking for best picture honors: Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”) and Mel Gibson (“Hacksaw Ridge”). I’ll go with Chazelle, who is likely to repeat at the Oscars.
Prediction: Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”

Screenplay
I’m not convinced the HFPA is as in love with “Manchester by the Sea” as other groups have been. A swerve feels like it’s in the cards here, like maybe “Hell or High Water.” Or might the passionate “Nocturnal Animals” contingent usher Tom Ford through? Really, any of the nominees could take it. How’s that for an analysis?
Prediction: “Hell or High Water”

Original Score
This would be a good place to recognize “Hidden Figures” and get some star wattage out of Pharrell Williams gracing the stage. And if the group wanted to be really slick, they could award Johann Johannsson here, whose “Arrival” score was deemed ineligible by the Academy. Then again, if there’s a musical in the mix (“La La Land”), it seems like you might as well place the chip. But will Harvey Weinstein’s slate really be shut out? Now I’ve gone and named nearly all the nominees.
Prediction: “Lion”

Original Song
There’s a real opportunity to get a superstar like Justin Timberlake (“Can’t Stop the Feeling”) or Stevie Wonder (“Faith”) up there, or Lin Manuel-Miranda (“How Far I’ll Go”) for that matter. I’ll just go with the obvious.
Prediction: “City of Stars” from “La La Land”

Motion Picture – Foreign Language
It’s possible the group lines up with the many organizations that have awarded “Toni Erdmann,” but they love “Elle” and Huppert is a spoiler in the drama actress category for the film to boot.
Prediction: “Elle”

Motion Picture – Animated
Common wisdom has “Zootopia” winning here, but there’s a bit of a vote siphoner in the mix with Disney’s other entry, “Moana.” Meanwhile, “Kubo and the Two Strings” has been no slouch at all on the circuit. I’ll bet on that.
Prediction: “Kubo and the Two Strings”

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  1. Paul says:

    How did you ever get a job? Most of your big predictions were wrong! Really, they should replace you with others who know better. Like me. Lol

  2. JimG. says:

    Wow. I can’t remember the last time I saw a PR hijack of a comments section like the one for Gibson and his movie. Rather obvious and completely shameless. The film has already made an impression, but seeing all of these breathlessly histrionic comments kind of puts me off. JK, had no interest in seeing this anyway.

  3. StevenKovacs says:

    ‘Hacksaw Ridge’ is the most powerful anti-war film since ‘Apocalypse Now’
    Totally ignored by the industry cucked mainstream Hollywood P/R machine due to blacklisted Mel Gibson.
    It is fitting that the HFPA show who’s the unbiased media NOW and award this truly great film at the Golden Globes ceremony!

  4. mickrussom says:

    Golden globes? More like Golden Showed Goebbels. Pfft.

  5. jim says:

    My god I would so love to see hacksaw ridge win. I haven’t been so knock out by a film in many years. It is a truly great film. Timeless.

  6. ebaa says:

    cant wait for tommorow la la land i think will get most awards

  7. cant wait for the golden globes is too white brigade to rear their ugly heads.

  8. Jo Josephson says:

    I am still amazed I haven’t heard about that story as dramatized in “Hack Saw Ridge” … Talk about a hero!

  9. Judi travers says:

    The awards are a political leftie farce ever since Halle berry got “best actress.”

  10. Stavros says:

    Mel deserves the Oscar. It is a great come back story. By the way, the lead character,, Desmond Doss is played by a fine Jewish actor.

  11. GC says:

    Hacksaw Ridge is an incredible film. OMG, the emotion and intensity. Great story and great storyteller Mel Gibson.

  12. OMG La La Land sucked.

  13. xfiler93 says:

    Mel’s film looks awesome. I cannot wait to see it!

  14. Joe Campbell says:

    Who cares or watches this crap?

  15. Jake says:

    Come on, Ryan gosling deserves to win best actor — it’s an all around grand performance that should win him the Oscar as well. If we are talking about well liked, he would seem more well liked than Casey Affleck

  16. BD says:

    The Adams prediction seems odd. It’s pretty obvious Portman can and will take this. Adams is not that big of a darling having lost all of her difficult nominations and winning only the easy ones. That’s not a darling, it’s just logic. Logic says Portman is winning. (A darling would be Winslet winning two in one night and specially winning last year).

    As for Hacksaw winning Picture, yes, it kind of makes sense. The Globes can be like that. But I’m not into predicting Manchester and Moonlight as going home empty handed or the Globes not rewarding the obvious alternates to La La Land just in case it doesn’t win BP at the Oscars.

    • Matt says:

      Hollywood reporter also picks Adams who I prefer over Portman — it’s a rather annoying performance and I hope that she does not win another Oscar for this

  17. Did no one see Star Wars?

  18. Mark Todd says:

    hacksaw ridge is the best movie of the last 25 years, easy and Mel should definitely get best director as well comparing the genius of his direction of hacksaw which was a huge challange compared to something so tame as lala land, which, as rex reed has stated, a seriously overrated film.

    • Bert says:

      I loved both Hacksaw and La La Land (not tame at all, super original an different). My two favorite films of the year.

  19. Airborne869 says:

    Concerning Dicaprio’s Global Warming award…and statement that Global Warming is Real…lol…

    California braces for ‘once-in-10-year’ storm amid fears of flooding, avalanches, blizzards…

    Snow, freeze-up to immobilize South…

    All states except Florida subfreezing temps…

    Chill Map…

    Record cold, snow spread globally…

    • Bert says:

      First, this is about movies, not politics.

      Second, if you are going to bring up climate change, at least try to do some research and at least know what you are talking about. Climate change causes increased extremes in temperature. Colder winters and hotter summers. This is going on in about 132 countries. No scientist denies this is happening. You can take the view that we shouldn’t do anything about it, but to argue it’s not happening makes you look either like a crazy person or just really stupid.

      • Bert says:

        “Plenty of scientists dispute global warming cooling climate change.”

        Where are these scientists? At Liberty University? Not at MIT. Not at Cal tech. Not at Stanford.

        Real scientists at hard science schools don’t have a political agenda, and they all agree there is climate change and it’s a huge problem.

        And why do you think we’re seeing much colder winters and much hotter summers? Why do you think the ice is melting in the poles?

        Arguing about climate change with a denier is like trying to play chess with a pigeon.

      • Grendel007 says:

        It only causes “increased extremes in temperature” because global warming was a fail. They had to rename it so that any weather not 70 degrees and sunny could fit their political agenda. You are the one needing to do so research. Plenty of scientists dispute global warming cooling climate change. They are just politically persecuted for their views. This is all political with very little “science” behind it.

  20. Lucian says:

    I can’t believe I actually clicked on this. I didn’t see a single one of these movies. And we have to give The Jackie O film an award because I mean, hey. It’s Jackie O, right? Ughhh

    • Airborne869 says:

      Scary…So was the earth HOT when the Dinosaur’s roamed the earth or was it freezing cold and what caused that Millions of years ago ?

    • john mcintyre says:

      Dude you need to see Hacksaw Ridge. Unbelievable movie.Andrew Garfield should get a nomination too. And its all based on a true story. It really happened.

  21. Brian D says:

    You’re predicting a total and complete shutout of Moonlight? You really think that movie won’t win anything? Even screenplay or supporting actor? I just don’t see how that’s even possible at this point.

  22. atilla thehun says:

    Help. Someone tell me why I should give a rat’s rear about these awards.

  23. Airborne869 says:

    Hard to believe LEONARDO DICAPRIO won Best Actor in a Leading Role for his performance in The Revenant. His acting was NOT that good for a Golden Globe! But he was owed one by Hollywood for showing some bear-ass in the movie.

    Mel Gibson (“Hacksaw Ridge”) and Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) are equally outstanding movies…
    Maybe they should split the Oscar this year or give two out.

  24. Tarheelgal22@yahoo.com says:

    Hacksaw Ridge was one of the most moving movies I have seen in my 4 1/2 decades. Beautiful story, beautifully acted, beautiful message & beautifully directed!

  25. This is such baloney. The best picture of the year is “The Accountant.”

  26. Cathy L Soloway says:

    I loved Hacksaw Ridge and The Arrival.

  27. Linda C. says:

    Even though Hacksaw Ridge was great, for what it’s worth, in my mind, hard to top Fences for actor / directing / supporting actress.

  28. cinemabuff says:

    Hacksaw Ridge deserves the award. The true story is even more fantastic than Mel could show. If anyone wants to see what a true hero of the ages looks and acts like: go see Hacksaw Ridge.
    As for LaLaLand? What a bunch of hype over two of the most untalented people ever. If Hollywood wants to bring back the musical, they should, at least, use actors who can really dance and really sing.

  29. prent says:

    I’m sorry, and I really appreciate Amy Adams, but she just didn’t have that much of a part in Arrival.

  30. Hell Or High Water – My vote for Best Picture

  31. Chris Creasman says:

    Winning an oscar is like winning the weekly spelling bee in the second grade. Nobody cares.

  32. Saw Hacksaw Ridge and it is one of the best war movies I have seen in a long time. It wasn’t just a blood and guts movie. It had a great plot and backstory. It was a complete movie and doesn’t leave you wondering.
    Welcome back Mel!

  33. ragu4u says:

    What a horrible gaggle of less than stellar films and actors/actresses to select from. I’d rather watch a Three Stooge marathon!

    • Steven C Stites says:

      Hey, dont insult the three stooges! Besides, they were Jewish so we all know how gibson feels about that. I hope this bigot loses everything, but he wont.

  34. Tuco Ortega says:

    I vote for Mel Gibson! Gibson is by far and away the most talented actor director of the past two decades and certainly the best up for the award. He is head and shoulders (literally too) above the movie executives favorites like JJ Abrams who ruined Start Trek, Mission Impossible and of course never brought Star Wars back to the glory of the first two films. We don’t want PC riddles social agenda messages, we want great films!

  35. Kathy says:

    I’m sure the prog monsters will find a way to ruin it for him.

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