Box Office: ‘Ninja Turtles 2’ Heading for Drab $30 Million Opening Weekend in U.S.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of
Courtesy of Paramount

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows” is heading for a drab $30 million opening weekend in the U.S. — less than half its predecessor’s debut, early estimates showed Friday.

Paramount’s action-comedy sequel was performing at the lower end of forecasts with an opening day of $11 million at 4,071 locations. New Line-MGM’s Emilia Clarke romancer “Me Before You,” on the other hand, is performing  better than expected in the $6.5 million to $8 million range on Friday. Universal’s surreal Andy Samberg comedy “Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping” launched quietly with $1.5 million.

“Out of the Shadows” earned $2 million during Thursday night preview screenings — less than half the preview take from the original “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” and a strong indication that the premise of wise-cracking pizza-loving terrapins battling to save the Earth may be wearing out its welcome. The original film earned $4.6 million in previews on its way to a $195 million domestic gross and $493.2 million worldwide.

The sequel, which opens in 40 international markets, need to perform strongly outside the U.S. in order to compensate for its $135 million budget.

“Out of the Shadows,” directed by Dave Green from a script by Josh Appelbaum and André Nemec, stars Megan Fox, Stephen Amell, Will Arnett, Brian Tee, Tyler Perry and Laura Linney.

“Out of the Shadows” has been pegged to top Fox’s second weekend of “X-Men: Apocalypse,” which should should pull in around $25 million at 4,153 sites in a typical “X-Men” decline in the 60%-plus range. “Apocalypse” will likely earn about $7.5 million on Friday to cross the $100 million mark.

“Me Before You,” starring Clarke and Sam Claflin, could make as much as $20 million at 2,704 locations though other estimates were projecting around $15 million. That should be enough to finish in third well ahead of Disney’s second weekend of “Alice Through the Looking Glass” at 3,763 sites following that sequel’s box office flop of $26.8 million.

“Me Before You” is based on Jojo Moyes’ bestselling novel. Clarke portrays a caretaker for a wealthy young man who was recently paralyzed after being hit by a car. It carries a modest $20 million budget.

“Alice Through the Looking Glass” will probably finish at about $10 million to $12 million, leaving it in a battle for fourth with Sony’s third weekend of “The Angry Birds Movie” and the fifth frame of Disney-Marvel’s “Captain America: Civil War” — the most recent sequel to overperform at the summer box office with $1.1 billion.

The Lonely Island’s “Popstar” is likely to fade quickly and finish under already-low expectations with about $4 million at 2,310 sites.

The domestic summer box office was down 4.1% from last year as of Wednesday, with $887 million while year-to-date grosses are up 4% at $4.52 billion, according to ComScore.

“The summer report card at this point is nothing to boast about with the past few weeks giving many in the business a stomach ache as uncertainty abounds as to the future of this all-important moviegoing season,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst with ComScore. “Of course, every summer season has its own unique line-up, trajectory and perceived quality of content with some being front-heavy with hits, others back-loaded with duds and most just all over the map.”

Upcoming titles with strong prospects include New Line’s “The Conjuring 2” on June 10, Disney’s “Finding Dory” on June 17 and Fox’s “Independence Day: Resurgence” on June 24.

“If box office history tells us anything, it’s that today’s slowdown can turn into a industry wide home run in a matter of a few weeks and a new crop of films that suddenly over-perform can relegate the flops to the distant memory category,” Dergarabedian said. “Over the course of the coming weeks with some breakout hits and unexpected surprises, there is likely to be a major reversal of box office fortunes that will have us talking in August about what a terrific summer 2016 became, despite some early bumps in the road.”

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  1. TMNT EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS says:

    Smelling the stench of biased reporting going on here. So, last weekend when ALICE 2 opened to just 7.7 million actual Friday dollars with an additional 1.7 million coming from Thursday night shows, reports still assumed that it was going to make $45 million for the weekend, until it didn’t($26.5 million). Now you have a sequel which opens well above that number to the tune of $12.5 million on a Friday, 2 million coming from Thursday and it’s expected to make less than the ALICE 2 estimates. Doesn’t contain an ounce of common sense reasoning in that report. If anything, a family movie that opens this well on a Friday normally does 1.5 to 2 times the Friday business on Saturday and Sundays thanks to families having the time to enjoy early matinees. And the matinees will be flooded just like the night shows were last night. Didn’t ANGRY BIRDS just open to $11 million on a Friday a few weekends ago and close the weekend to the tune of $38 million???? So WTF is up with this shady reporting? A family event film that opens to 12.5 million on a Friday should at the very least hit the $50 million mark for the weekend. There’s some BS going on in the entertainment industry box office information world.

  2. Carlos Shabo says:

    Fairly simple reason.

    Too much stuff came out this week. this should have came out in August, or a weak time in July.

    I feel that this Michael Bay produced version of TMNT has peaked, people like some aspects of it, but it can be so much better and far more enjoyable with a few tweaks. And the 100% CGI based Ninja Turtles should be the first thing that gets a facelift.

  3. Sheude & Freud says:

    And so it begins.. The collapse of the IP based sequel mania. I for one will be cracking open a beer and kicking back to watch the chaos and panic that ebmnsues.

    • Phlegmbot says:

      It’s not about the IP, it’s about telling the stories well. Captain America — the oldest of the IPs w/a solid franchise — has done better with each sequel so far.

      Fact is, Singer and pals had nothing new, interesting, or fun to bring to X-Men:A. Everything in that film is the same old tired nonsense we’ve seen, and it also LOOKS exactly like every X-Men film. If Fox leadership has any brains, they’ll bring in someone with a decidedly different vision — a Barry Sonnenfeld or a Tarantino or, heck, look for an up-and-coming visionary (like they, um, sort of did w/Deadpool).

      And, of course, TMNT 1’s success showed how hungry people were for a Mutant Turtles movie. It was wildly successful. But it was a big, fat bore. If you can’t make talking, fighting turtles fun for kids, you’ve f–ked up royally. And most kids were bored and the adults who grew up loving the characters felt the 1st movie missed the mark. And, look at that, for once auds didn’t give in an show up.

      • Sheude & Freud says:

        sure, better filmmaking will give sequels a better chance but the IP, by definition, is the launching pad of sequelitis. some will do better than others and some will last longer than others, but it’s all going to hit the point of diminishing returns. any economist will tell you that any product will experience diminishing returns over time. even sales for a terrific product like the iphone will eventually taper off and then it’s time to innovate instead of imitate.

      • EricJ says:

        TMNT1 was producer Bay trying so hard to be “modern”, it ended up being everything BUT what core fans remembered, and just about flat-out unrecognizable.
        TMNT2 seems to realize that, and went all out to go the opposite direction and update every 80’s nostalgia icon fans remembered from the cartoon.
        Whether he succeeded remains to be seen, but we should know better by now than to judge kids’ movies by Friday night numbers.

        And as for XM:A, yes, Singer’s just one more step away from becoming Zack Snyder-esque box-office poison–It’s not the “Death of the superhero movie”, it’s the audience giving up on the competitors and finally realizing that the better ones really -do- come directly from Disney.

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