‘Captain America: Civil War’ Eyes Massive $175 Million-Plus Debut

'Captain America: Civil War' Box Office
Courtesy of Disney

Captain America: Civil War” is set to dominate the box office.

The superhero adventure is on track to be one of the biggest openings of any Marvel Comics film in history, with pre-release tracking suggesting it will open between $175 million and $180 million. Rival studio executives and analysts believe that the film, which has Captain America in the title, but also includes Avengers staples such as Iron Man and Black Widow among its cadre of costumed protagonists, could debut to nearly $200 million.

“It’s tough to predict any movie getting above $200 million, but this one has a shot,” said Eric Handler, an analyst with MKM Partners. “They have two weeks of good buzz to build on and the marketing machine behind this is going to be huge.”

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The issue with firming up a prediction for a film like “Captain America: Civil War” is that awareness of the picture is nearly universal and interest is high. That makes coming up with an accurate prediction more art than science. It should also be noted that no tracking service has the film hitting $200 million.

If it does reach that number, “Captain America: Civil War” will be only the fourth film in history, behind “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” “Jurassic World” and the first “Avengers” movie, to breach the $200 million barrier in the opening weekend. The previous two Captain America films opened to $65.1 million and $95 million, respectively. However, the ensemble cast and the promise of seeing Captain America face off against Iron Man is bolstering interest. The picture is taking on the air of a third Avengers movie instead of another Captain America one-off. It also features the first on-screen appearances of the new Spider-Man (English actor Tom Holland slipping into the spandex) and Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther.

“Captain America: Civil War” will extend a strong box office run for Disney, Marvel’s parent company. The film unit had a major success with “Zootopia,” the animated film that has made $883.8 million globally, and scored with “The Jungle Book,” its live-action retelling of the animated classic that debuted to $103.6 million last weekend.

“Captain America: Civil War” opens on May 6 in the U.S. and rolls out that week in prime international markets such as China, Russia and Italy. The film will begin its foreign roll out on April 27, bowing in the likes of France and Korea. It should be in most major foreign territories by the first week of May.

That continent-spanning footprint means the film will likely rack up massive global box office results. Domestically, it has the multiplexes more or less to itself. There are no other studio wide releases opening against “Captain America: Civil War” and no major blockbuster film hits screens until two weeks later when a sequel to “Neighbors,” “The Angry Birds Movie” and “The Nice Guys” with Ryan Gosling and Russell Crowe debut.

Reviews have been strong, with Variety‘s Justin Chang hailing the film as “the most mature and substantive picture to have yet emerged from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.” Joe Russo and Anthony Russo (“Captain America: The Winter Soldier”) direct the film with Chris Evans, Robert Downey Jr., Scarlett Johansson, Sebastian Stan and Anthony Mackie heading up the cast.

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  1. LOL says:

    America adores the same crap over and over and over and over and over again.

    • wanye says:

      Hmmmm…considering the majority of the box office will come from outside America, let me fix this for you:

      The World adores the same crap over and over and over and over and over again.

  2. Sack Zack says:

    I don’t quite understand all the hate from DC fanboys. I won’t say that BvS sucked but it was just an “OK” movie. I wanted it to be great …even saw it twice. Bottom line is Marvel makes better movies and if Warner stepped there game up to the level that they were with the Christian Bale Batman trilogy – then we wouldnt be here having this discussion. Don’t blame the critics – many of them are pretty pessimistic and glass 1/2 empty types. The fact that Marvel can land so much praise from a bunch of Debbie downers means Civil War probably will be a great movie

  3. Jimmy says:

    If this movie doesn’t approach an Avengers opening, it will be considered a failure. I meant this should blow past a billion or Marvel will have to stop making movies all together. (sarcasm) Can’t we just enjoy these movies without box office watching and failure pronouncing before it’s released. I am a fan of Marvel and DC, can’t we just get along. It really bothered me about this BvS failure death watch narrative in the media. Some films will make more than others in Marvel and DC without having to over react about a 100 million here and there.

    • Sack Zack says:

      Agreed! I have a degree in mathematics but I don’t want to sit here and quantify movie results …I just want to enjoy a good movie.

  4. Only 175 Million? That means it’ll be a bigger flop that BvS, right? Right critics???

    • Silas says:

      Not sure what you’re saying. On the one hand BvS opened to $166M, so why would CW be the ‘bigger flop’? (Maybe CW’s budget is bigger, but we don’t know this.) On the other, BvS isn’t quite a flop, and I don’t think critics have been calling it one.

  5. cadavra says:

    Whine all you want, guys, but advance reviews have been exemplary, and since critics by nature tend to be biased against comic-book movies, the naysayers are looking to have massive egg on their faces.

    • Don't Mind Me Now says:

      “Critics by nature tend to be biased against comic-book movies.”

      The positive critical receptions of Kingsman, Avengers: AOU, Ant-Man, Deadpool, X-Men: DOFP, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Guardians of the Galaxy and Big Hero 6 kinda break that argument. (And that’s just in the last 2 years!)

      In fact, unless I’m missing some, only three wide-release comic book movies since 2014 got bad reviews – BvS:DoJ, Fant4stic, and Amazing Spider-Man 2 (and even that last one was over 50% on RT).

      BvS getting panned was largely an exceptional case with regard to critics and comic book movies. And for anyone who thinks the critics are targeting DC, I invite you to look back at the RT scores for the Nolan Bat-trilogy.

  6. Berke Zane says:

    Do studios hire these commenters to jump in and say GEE WHIZ THIS IS GONNA BE A HIT?
    Or are they just assistants already on the payroll?

    • rowana says:

      Yes, sure, this is ALL a big plot to downplay BvS, and everyone was hired to write fake gee-whiz stories about Marvel. DC fanboys – you are pathetic. And your accusations are an insult to reporters and editors.

    • David says:

      Probably assistants, various people around the office. Hell, even the janitors were brought in and told to hype up the movie.

  7. Chizz says:

    Marvel won’t be getting a cent of my money

  8. Good Luck says:

    Marvel fan-boys are so obnoxious. Hope they put on pants before they leave Mommie’s basement.

  9. Spider says:

    I believe this flick will open between 200 – 225 million! It’s gonna ROCK!

    • Silas says:

      Why do you think the tracking is wrong?

      • Kay says:

        Because they’re always wrong. They thought the jungle book would take 65M it took 103M. They thought BvS old take 130 it took 166M. They were way off with Jurrassic World too. U can’t really track these kinds of films accurately…

  10. Marco says:

    This movie will easily join the billion $ club.
    I can’t see that happening with ANY DC comic adaptation coming up till 2020.

    I have tickets for wednesday 27th and this may be the first comic book movie i will watch twice since “The Avengers”.

  11. John says:

    Thumbs Up! Everything about this movie is positive: reviews, trailers, buzz – I’m so looking forward to see it! This will be one of those movies that lives up to expectations from all levels.

  12. Marti723 says:

    Only time will tell! But i hope it beats BvS opening :)

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