Study: ‘Blindspot,’ ‘Limitless’ New Shows Most Likely to Stick

Maker of Peel Smart Remote App Predicts Winners, Losers

NBC’s “Blindspot” and CBS’ “Limitless” are the new series with the greatest likelihood of continued ratings success, according to predictive data compiled by Peel, maker of the world’s leading smart remote app. The company today revealed its predictions for winners and losers from among this year’s crop of new shows based on tune-out data and other information from its 12 million monthly U.S. users.

Nearly 74% of “Limitless” viewers remained tuned in for at least 15 minutes of the premiere, followed by two more crime dramas: “Rosewood” (73.3%) and NBC’s “Blindspot” (72.5). ABC’s “The Muppets” (72.2%) and Fox’s “Grandfathered” (70.2) also appear headed for success, according to Peel.

The 70% mark seems to be a key dividing line, with five shows above that figure getting renewed last year: “Scorpion” (78%), “Gotham” (75%), “How to Get Away with Murder” (74%), “Black-ish” (72%) and “The Mysteries of Laura” (71%). The only show not to was “Red Band Society” (73%).

On the other hand, topping the list of new shows most likely headed for a quick cancellation were ABC’s “Blood & Oil,” which had only 60% of viewers still tuned in after 15 minutes. It was followed by Fox’s “Minority Report” (62.9%), CBS’ “Life in Pieces” (63.3) and NBC’s “The Player” (65%).

Another key factor, according to Peel, is the percentage of viewers who set reminders and favorites, with “Blindspot” (18%) and “Limitless” (14%) the highest on this list. Among the fall’s new broadcast series, Fox’s “The Grinder” (4.9), CBS’ “Life in Pieces” (9.5%) and NBC’s “The Player” (10.2%) had the lowest.

“Tune-out data, along with other engagement metrics such as reminders set for next week’s episode, appear to be a much better indicator of success than the total number of viewers who tune in to a premiere,” said Peel CEO and co-founder Thiru Arunachalam, whose remote control app now has 125 million registered users globally. “Viewer retention and ‘likes’ signals the quality of a premiere episode rather than how much money was spent promoting it or what hit show led into it.”

The lead-in factor was clearly at play for “Life in Pieces,” which benefited from debuting immediately after the season premiere of “The Big Bang Theory” to become the most-watched new series of Premiere Week. But, in part due to airing in such a competitive time period, it was more likely to lose viewers with itchy remote fingers. Peel, which also tracks where viewers go when they defect from a show, found that 21.2% of “Life in Pieces” viewers jumped to NBC’s “The Voice,” and 7.9% to ABC’s “Dancing With the Stars.”

Similarly, NBC’s Wesley Snipes action series “The Player” suffered airing opposite “How to Get Away With Murder” on ABC, which grabbed 14.3% of channel switchers, and “Thursday Night Football” on CBS and NFL Network, which stole another 10.7%.

Those tuning out “Blood & Oil” were most likely to turn to “CSI,” while the “Grinder” audience found “Fresh Off the Boat.” “The Muppets” lost most of its audience to “Scream Queens,” while “Scream Queens” viewers that left were most likely to move to “The Voice.”

A look at the broadcast shows and notable cable series to premiere from Aug. 23-Sept. 28. The below chart shows the percentage of viewers who were still watching a show five minutes in, and then 15 minutes in:

Show ……………………… 5 minutes ….. 15 minutes
Limitless (CBS) ……………….  75.7 ………….. 73.8 ……
Rosewood (Fox) ………………  77.0 ………….. 73.3 ……
Blindspot (NBC) ………………  77.3 …………..  72.5 ……
The Muppets (ABC) …………..  77.2 ………….  72.2 …..
Grandfathered (Fox) ………….  75.8 …………..  70.2 ……
Fear …. Dead (AMC) …………  73.7 …………..  69.8 ……
Carmichael Show (NBC) ……..  71.8 …………..  67.6 ……
The Grinder (Fox) …………….  74.3 …………..  67.1 ……
Quantico (ABC) ……………….  71.1 …………..  66.6 ……
Scream Queens (Fox) ……….  71.9 …………..  66.5 ……
Heroes Reborn (NBC) ………..  70.5 …………..  66.3 ……
Best Time Ever … (NBC) …….  72.2 …………..  65.4 ……
Bastard Executioner (FX) …….  70.2 …………..  65.2 ……
The Player (NBC) ……………..  68.6 ………….  65.0 ……
Public Morals (TNT) ………….   71.3 …………..  64.6 …..
Life in Pieces (CBS) ………….  71.0 …………..  63.3 ……
Minority Report (Fox) ………..  69.6 ………….  62.9 ……
Daily Show … Noah (CC) …..  68.9 ………….. 62.9 ……
Blood & Oil (ABC) ……………. 64.7 …………… 60.0 …..
Moonbeam City (CC) ……….. 61.4 ……………. 57.5 ……
Average ………………………… 71.7 …………… 66.6 …..

 

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