Emmy Nominations: How Accurate Were Our Predictions?

In the days leading up to the announcement of the 2014 Emmy nominees, Variety set out to predict the most likely contenders in the drama, comedy, acting, miniseries and movies categories.  While by no means an exact science, many of our picks made the final cut — with a few surprises joining them.  Here’s how our predictions stacked up against the list final nominees:

OUTSTANDING SERIES

The competition for best drama series led to an overabundance of contenders for the six slots that did not leave enough room for “The Good Wife,” as Variety had predicted.  “Downton Abbey” once again garnered a nom, edging out the CBS drama and other hopeful pick “Masters of Sex”.

Although it was expected to come out ahead, two-time winner “Girls” did not see a nomination for comedy series this year. Nor did newcomer “Brooklyn Nine-Nine,” which was anticipated to pick up a series nom after surprising many by winning at January’s Golden Globe Awards.  Variety’s wild card, “Silicon Valley” instead slipped into the much-coveted sixth slot.

EMMYS: FULL LIST OF NOMINATIONS

ACTING

Among the acting categories for drama series, Variety correctly predicted five out of six nominees in each.  While Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”), Michael Sheen (“Masters of Sex”) and James Spader (“The Blacklist”) did not receive nominations, “The Newsroom’s” Jeff Daniels did.  Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey”) scored her third nom, but Variety picks Mariska Hargitay (“Law and Order: SVU”), Elisabeth Moss (“Mad Men”) and Keri Russell (“The Americans”) did not.

The  comedy arena saw Ricky Gervais (“Derek”) and William H. Macy (“Shameless”) score nominations, bumping out Andy Samberg (“Brooklyn Nine-Nine”), Thomas Middleditch (“Silicon Valley”), Johnny Galecki (“The Big Bang Theory”) and our bonus pick, Jon Cryer (“Two and a Half Men”).  Five of Variety’s predictions for lead actress in a comedy made the final list of nominees, with Melissa McCarthy (“Mike and Molly”) closing it out — rather than Laurie Metcalf (“Getting On”), Anna Faris (“Mom”) or Mindy Kaling (“The Mindy Project”).

MINISERIES AND MOVIE

Variety’s predictions for outstanding miniseries nearly matched the final list of nominees, with “The White Queen” landing a nom over “Dancing on the Edge.”  “Treme,” our wild card selection, also came out with a place in the final leg of the Emmy race.  “Killing Kennedy” and “Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight” scored nominations for outstanding television movie, edging out Variety’s picks “Burton and Taylor” and “Return to Zero.”

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