Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win Sunday Night?

Gravity, Her, 12 Years a Slave

The ultimate guide to what will (probably) happen at the Academy Awards

If there are any surprises at this year’s Oscar ceremony on Sunday, you can blame the Winter Olympics. The sporting event pushed back the Academy Awards a week, which gave voters an extra few days to mull over the nominees. Could the momentum of a frontrunner fade in that time? In 2010, the last time the Oscars were held in March, the favorites all won, but this year’s top categories are much more competitive.

So who will win? Variety’s Ramin Setoodeh and Jenelle Riley debate the major races and offer their predictions, based on precursor awards, industry buzz and gut instinct.


Ramin: I want to start with the best actress race, because every pundit agrees that Cate Blanchett is a shoo-in for “Blue Jasmine,” after sweeping all the precursors. I think she’s probably the safe bet. But with a late voting calendar, there’s been more time for voters to second-guess their choices, and I think Amy Adams could upset.

Here are three reasons why: (1) Adams is the only non-winner. The rest of her opponents — Meryl Streep, Judi Dench, Sandra Bullock and Blanchett — have all won Oscars before. The last time four winners went up against a non-winner in an acting category was in 2002, when Adrien Brody emerged with a surprise trophy for “The Pianist.” (2) “American Hustle” needs to be rewarded somewhere. The David O. Russell comedy became the 15th movie in history to have four actors nominated, and usually when that happens, one actor emerges victorious. (3) The Dylan Farrow letter in the New York Times. I don’t really want to go into specifics of the case (the Internet has already done that), other than to say some voters will understandably be discouraged from supporting a Woody Allen film.

This is Adams’ fifth Oscar nomination. She’s worked with almost everybody in the industry, and her performance in “American Hustle” is a nimble tightrope walk that serves as the backbone of the movie. (The entire ensemble leans on her.) Blanchett is the frontrunner, but I’m going on a limb and predicting a late-night surprise win for Adams.

Jenelle: There was a time when I also thought either Adams or Bullock could upset. The Academy loves Adams and the world loves Bullock. And I think if Dench had been able to campaign this year, things might be different. But Blanchett is unstoppable. If she had lost even a single precursor award, I would think it could make a dent in the case for her, but she has swept everything. I think Jennifer Lawrence is a stronger bet than Adams for a “Hustle” win (we’ll get to that) and I also think “Hustle” is being underestimated in some below the line categories, so the thought of it going home empty-handed doesn’t worry me. As for the Woody Allen scandal, I don’t see it touching her. When she won the BAFTA Award, she chose to dedicate the award to Philip Seymour Hoffman. A classy, heartfelt move that also had the added benefit of her being able to deliver a powerful speech without having to mention anyone else—namely her controversial director. All that aside, she’s a phenomenal actress who never makes a false move in her front-and-center performance.

Ramin’s Prediction: Amy Adams, “American Hustle”
Jenelle’s Prediction: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine”


Jenelle: This category is the most competitive it’s ever been. You know it’s tough when Tom Hanks isn’t nominated for “Captain Phillips.” When I saw “Dallas Buyers Club” at the Toronto Film Festival last year, I tweeted that no one could beat Matthew McConaughey for best actor. My faith was shaken at times — it seemed like the film wasn’t building the buzz it needed at first, and Chiwetel Ejiofor was a formidable competitor. Then the Golden Globe and SAG Award wins seemed to push McConaughey to the lead, but I couldn’t shake the feeling Leonardo DiCaprio was breathing down his neck. It’s a bravura performance and DiCaprio is overdue — he should have won 20 years ago for “What’s Eating Gilbert Grape.” DiCaprio has been campaigning like never before, even appearing on “Saturday Night Live” to poke fun at “Titanic.” Also, “Wolf of Wall Street” screened too late for SAG nominating committee to really consider it, so we were deprived of a DiCaprio vs. McConaughey showdown. But when DiCaprio failed to win the BAFTA award (McConaughey wasn’t nominated for BAFTA), my thoughts of a DiCaprio upset were greatly diminished. Plus, McConaughey is killing it on HBO’s “True Detective.” So it seems to be McConaughey’s year — which is great. His performance is transformative, fierce and heartbreaking.

Ramin: I think DiCaprio should have won for “Titanic,” “The Departed” or “Django Unchained.” But that’s a different discussion. Entertainment Weekly’s Owen Gleiberman makes the argument that four of the nominees — Bruce Dern, Ejiofor, DiCaprio or McConaughey — all stand a shot at winning this prize. Maybe. I think the fact that there’s no clear second favorite will help McConaughey, who will win his first best actor Oscar (and hopefully include the phrase “all right, all right, all right” in his speech). The force is with the McConaissance.

Jenelle and Ramin’s Prediction: Matthew McConaughey, “Dallas Buyers Club”


Ramin: The most suspenseful award of the night will be best picture. “12 Years a Slave” was knighted the best film of the year by many when it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival, only to stumble at the box office (it’s only made $50 million, despite all the critical acclaim). All throughout Oscar season, I’ve heard the Academy voters say they like, but don’t love, the Fox Searchlight drama. Even so, I still think “12 Years” would have had a good chance of winning best picture under the old system of counting ballots. But after the best picture race expanded in 2011, the votes in this category are tabulated differently — with a weighted ballot. You don’t need a plurality to win. You need a majority, and voters are asked to rank their favorite films in order of preference. I think the new math gives “Gravity” the edge. The movie that wins this award can’t polarize audiences (which “12 Years” does). It needs to be mostly consistently liked, and “Gravity,” which received 10 Oscar nominations, will receive a high ranking on most ballots. For that reason, I’m predicting it will win best picture.

Jenelle: I was hoping the PGA Awards would provide some clarity to the “Gravity” vs. “12 Years a Slave” race, but then they went and tied. So it’s going to be down to the wire. I’ve heard “12 Years a Slave” described as an “eat your vegetables” movie — it’s good for you, it’s a classic “best picture,” and it will win. I think that’s selling the movie short, as it’s also a great film that many people are deeply passionate about. But like you said, the preferential ballot doesn’t reward passion, it rewards the consensus movie — the one that everyone can agree is a solid choice. For that reason, and because of all the below-the-line support, I also think “Gravity” will top “12 Years a Slave” in the end.

Ramin and Jenelle’s Prediction: “Gravity”


Jenelle: Is there really any question at this point that Alfonso Cuaron will triumph for directing “Gravity”? He’s up against four amazing directors, all with passionate fans of their own, yet has taken every major award so far. And while the technical aspects of “Gravity” are clearly remarkable, he also draws great performances out of Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. And talk about range — the guy has made everything from the Spanish-language road trip indie “Y Tu Mama Tambien” to epics like “Children of Men” to the best “Harry Potter” in the series. One of the most talented and nicest guys in the business.

Ramin: I agree with everything you just said!

Jenelle and Ramin’s Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity”


Ramin: Can anybody beat Jared Leto and Lupita Nyong’o? I think Leto is a lock for “Dallas Buyers Club.” Supporting actress is less certain, even if Nyong’o is the favorite. If I’m wrong about Amy Adams, there could be a chance the Academy gives the trophy to Lawrence, who is Hollywood’s most valuable asset right now — between headlining the “Hunger Games,” winning the Oscar last year for “Silver Linings Playbook” and stealing every scene of “American Hustle,” the biggest hit of David O. Russell’s career. But I’ll go with Nyong’o, not only because of her emotionally devastating performance, but because “12 Years” has to win one of the major prizes.

Jenelle: Leto might be even a more sure thing than Cuaron. Maybe if Bruce Dern had gone supporting for “Nebraska” it would be more of a race, but probably not. Nyong’o, I’m not as sure about. My head tells me the SAG Award win puts her over the top, but I can’t shake the gut feeling that love for “American Hustle” and Lawrence will put her over the edge. If I wanted to be really daring, I would call a surprise win for June Squibb — there’s a lot of love for “Nebraska” out there. But it does seem to be a two-woman race.

Ramin’s Predictions: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club,” and Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave”
Jenelle’s Predictions: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club,” and Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle”


Best Animated Feature: “Frozen” (R.S. and J.R.)
Best Cinematography: “Gravity” (R.S. and J.R.)
Best Costume Design: “The Great Gatsby” (R.S.), “American Hustle” (J.R.)
Best Documentary: “The Act of Killing” (R.S.), “20 Feet From Stardom” (J.R.)
Best Film Editing: “Gravity” (R.S.), “Captain Phillips” (J.R.)
Best Foreign Film: “The Great Beauty” (R.S.), “The Broken Circle Breakdown” (J.R.)
Best Makeup: “Dallas Buyers Club” (R.S.), “Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa” (J.R.)
Best Original Score: “Gravity” (R.S. and J.R.)
Best Original Song: “Frozen” (R.S. and J.R.)
Best Production Design: “The Great Gatsby” (R.S.), “Gravity” (J.R.)
Best Sound Editing: “Gravity” (R.S. and J.R.)
Best Sound Mixing: “Gravity” (R.S. and J.R.)
Best Visual Effects: “Gravity” (R.S. and J.R.)
Best Adapted Screenplay: “12 Years a Slave” (R.S. and J.R.)
Best Original Screenplay: “Her” (R.S.), “American Hustle” (J.R.)

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  1. Best Actor is a tough one to call when we take into account the way the Academy could perceive the performances. On one hand, it could be McConaughey, but on the other DiCaprio or Ejifor could take it away. Its so hard to guess!!


  2. Kate says:

    “with a late voting calendar, there’s been more time for voters to second-guess their choices, and I think Amy Adams could upset.”

    Lol. You’re so out of touch.

    Btw, Blanchett is the one that knows everyone in the industry. Everyone.
    And Adams in Hustle is FAR from Brody in The Pianist, plus, it’s a VERY different year with VERY different circumstances. Not comparable at all. What a clueless person.

  3. tommy musni says:

    Everyone’s top 3 for Best pic shows an underwhelming year since they’re all good, not great. The theme of 12 Years A Slave is pretty much, someone was a slave for 12 years. Gravity is SUPPOSEDLY about a woman who has given up because of her child’s death and has to learn to live. People don’t give up by joining the space program. They drink or withdraw. Gravity awesome visuals, but George Clooney floating around making quips about his good looks shows why Tom Hanks makes a real astronaut. American Hustle was an exercise in let’s get together very good and pretty actors and look at them. Picture 4 unknown, maybe even unattractive actors, in American Hustle and tell me how slow that story is. Like I said, good, not great. Out of a few hundred films in the U.S. this year this is the best? Philomena is written clever, brings you laughs and pain, while teaching you something about yourself. Unfortunately voting will come down to who’s pretty or the fact that slavery was a bad idea.

  4. Cee says:

    Re: Amy Adams possible upset: One reason Adrien Brody took the Oscar out of the blue was that the precursor awards were flip-flopping between Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of NY) and Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt). Those split votes helped Brody win. Blanchett (if memory serves) has won pretty much everything. I think they will give American Hustle the screenplay Oscar as consolation. They will give a well-deserving Adams one another year for the wrong movie, aka The Renee Zellweger Oscar.

  5. It would be almost a shame if 12 Years A Slave or American Hustle won Best Picture. Neither of them are really good enough compared to some of the other overshadowed nominees.

    There’s a review here talks about 12 Years A Slave and what is intricately wrong with it: http://thereeljunkie.com/2014/02/28/film-review-12-years-a-slave/

    • Dex says:

      “It would be almost a shame if 12 Years A Slave or American Hustle won Best Picture. Neither of them are really good enough compared to some of the other overshadowed nominees.”

      Such as?
      By the way, it’s quite telling that you provided the link to an 11th-hour critique of “12 Years,” yet failed to do so for “American Hustle.” Your post smells like the fishy–and desperate–efforts of a rival studio.

  6. Gayle Golden says:

    She won for best supporting actress just as Cate Blanchett had not as best leading actress. It was also largely felt that she won for her brief supporting actress rolein Shakespeare in Love to compensate for her not winning an oscar for best actress the year before in Mrs. Brown. Whether or not she wins on Sunday, she has touched many people throughout the world as Philomena and honored Philomena Lee, a courageous and admirable woman.

  7. Looks like it will be a big year for Gravity and that sucks. I thought it was great movie making but not a great movie. Turn this story and script in to something on earth and no one is talking about it. The story was predictable and boring, if not for the effects and visuals I would have fallen asleep.

    American Hustle : I thought it was a bad comedy, they will be showing this at midnight showings some day with college kids dressing up as their favorite characters and acting out the parts as badly as the actors.
    Captain Phillips : solid storytelling, good movie, the nomination is the win.
    Dallas Buyers Club : pedestrian storytelling with, of course, two of the best performances in movie history.
    Gravity : wake me up after they collect the best picture statue.
    Her : a sweet little movie that makes you think just a bit, that’s it, not a best picture nominee.
    Nebraska : brilliant, sublime, movie making at its best, on my planet this wins best picture.
    Philomena : have not seen it, will before Sunday, but I am guessing the nom is the win for them.
    12 Years a Slave : a great and very important story makes for a good movie but not a best picture.
    The Wolf of Wall Street : wow, I simply want to punch Scorsese in the face. This movie screams potential greatness at the top of its lungs but feels like Scorsese just gave up on it like a kid figuring out he can not put the puzzle together so he gives up and knocks the table over.

    • rocknrollrocksout says:

      There are few comments I could disagree with more. All 9 are good movies. “Gravity” is predictable, yes, but in the best possible ways; the ways we can relate to.

      • tommy musni says:

        Couldn’t agree with you more. I’m glad there’s someone who sees what “story” is past pretty actors and awesome special effects. What did you think about The Way Way Back? I liked it better than Nebraska. Of the nominated, I think Philomena was the most solid story with depth.

    • Tammy says:

      Oh yeah! Your post made me remember that I didn’t get a chance to see “Philomena” either! I LOVE Dame Judi Dench! (She is a dame, right ?) I’m not really a fan of Leonardo DiCaprio, and the DiCaprio/Scorsese pairing has gotten really stale. Just my opinion.

  8. captainscourageous says:

    Would so love to see Bruce Dern take it but don’t imagine that will happen. Having seen all the top contenders this year, I feel really sad about Nebraska being so massively overlooked. Best film of the year.

    I love Cate Blanchett but thought Blue Jasmine was meh and found her performance dazzling but without heart. Notes on a Scandal — now there was a film!

  9. Keeping It Really Real About Oscar

    American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street, though well performed and produced, are symptomatic of the banal and predictable formula that Hollywood continues present — a thin script written on glitzy paper, and presented with overstated acting. It’s a formulaic addiction that’s been maintained since the 1980s, with very rare moments of rehabilitation or healing. Simple-minded cinema still reigns.

    Expect this addiction to manifest itself once again at the 2014 Oscars ceremony. The very fact that there is a campaigning effort to convince alternative-starved moviegoers over the age of age of 35 that Hustle and Street are innately entitled to be nominated or win an Academy Award is certified evidence of what’s been wrong in establishment Hollywood for nearly 40 years. Its an annual cultural orgy with trophies.

    The quantity of sales from higher ticket prices are no indication or evidence of the quality of cinema we drag ourselves to see when there’s nothing else to do. Movies seem hyped from making more money, though it’s actually because ticket prices are higher. Besides, it’s likely today that theaters now serve as oversize marketing kiosks for the soon-to-come DVD or digital download — a medium many of us have escaped to in order to find more variety and quality in what passes for mass market cinema nowadays.

    However, as much as they have a right to be self-serving and make money too (show BUSINESS), American moviegoers have skin in this game as well. Unless more and more of us seek, support and demand better, the same old characters, story lines and cinema effects will continue to be displayed from theater, home and tablet screens. We can do much better.

    • gayle golden says:

      Oscars have at times overlooked “the best performances” Humphrey Bogart didn’t win for Casablanca, Clark Gable didn’t win for Gone with the wind” Jimmy Stewart didn’t win for Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, Judi Dench didn’t win for Mrs. Brown. In some cases voters made up for it in following years e.g. Jimmy Stewart Philadelphia Story, Humphrey Bogart African Queen, Rod Steiger In the heat of the Night following his loss for a wonderful performance in Pawnbroker. Politics or illnesses can influence eg, Liz Taylor Butterfield 8. Often they do award some of the best The real test of greatness is o how a movie or an actor endures over time. Watching TCM 31 days of oscar I am in awe of many of the past winners. The ones that impress me the most have had superb writing and a powerful story to tell. Everyone has their own preference for films ;some for action and visual milestone, mysteries, romance etc. For me it is the story that the movie tells and the lasting impact it has on me. Past screenwriters have included some of the best writers Fitzgerald, Carson McCullers, Horton Foote, Mosell, Faulkner, Steve Zalian. This year for me the film was Philomena… I took the journey with her and left the theater in awe of her capacity to believe a nd forgive. That is the kind of movie that makes me a n avid filmgoer an d believer in the power of film.

  10. S. A. Young says:

    Politics and lifetime achievement play such a big role in the predictions made here that it’s a good indication that they have/will in Academy voters’ decisions as well. (Something most outsiders believe but few insiders will admit to.) That’s a shame. It’s supposed to be about the particular performance (script, direction etc) for a particular film released in the given year. That said, despite the fact that I believe DiCaprio is WAAAAY overdue and I’ve been a vocal supporter of McConaughey’s abilities for a long time, no one deserves Best Actor more than Chiwetel Ejiofor. That we’re still having these debates, however, is a sign of a very good year in film. That’s at least a win for moviegoers.

  11. John says:

    I watched all of the movies this year. I honestly think Jennifer Lawrence did the best job of anyone in her category. She had the most range. There were times I loved Rosalyn and there were times that I hated her. Her character was complicated and I applaud Jennifer for successfully taking that on. Julia Roberts was second best IMO.
    Lupita was good, but to me she seems like a stage actress. Her gestures are too big! I thought Anne Hathaway did the same thing in Les Mis. Lupita is also campaigning super hard for this Oscar, but she doesn’t seem desperate like Anne was. Anne had a madness in her eyes.
    I think the votes will go to Lupita because Hollywood loves awarding first time nominee’s in this category. I also think they frown on actors and actresses who have commercial success. I think they see it as selling out. However, Jennifer seems like she just enjoys making movies and wants to experience a variety of projects.

  12. BrooklynDogGeek says:

    I agree with all except for anybody winning for American Hustle especially Lawrence, whom I adore. But her accent slipping to and fro between Brooklyn, Fargo and normal was so distracting.

    And if anyone other than McConaughey and Leto win for those categories, God help us. Sorry, Leo, 2014 is still not your year.

  13. There’s some misinformation in this post regarding the preferential balloting process used in determining the BP winner. Steve Pond did a nice job explaining it in this video http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/steve-ponds-everything-you-need-to-know-about-oscar-ballot-voting/

    But the two main things:

    1.) A film needs to be ranked highest on a *majority* of ballots (50% + 1) in order to win BP. Simple plurality to win was the old system when there were only 5 nominees.

    2) A winner on a preferential ballot will almost always have finished in the top 2 of voting on a simple plurality ballot. Most of the time, the winners are the same. Passion (i.e. #1 votes) is still a very important prerequisite to win. The preferential ballot just requires a broader base of it.

  14. Jack Malvern says:

    The prediction of Gravity to win Best Picture is nicely argued, but Academy voters have a keen sense of history. Are they really going to look back with pride if they choose a space adventure over one of the most powerful explorations of slavery in America?

    • Penn says:

      Not a “Gravity” fan, but your assumption that voters should be choosing a film for (what you judge to be) the worthiness of its content over its quality is more ridiculous than insulting. Take a look at the full list of Best Picture Oscars — you may not agree with the choices, but there’s nothing to be ashamed of.

  15. If Amy Adams doesn’t win Best Actress and Leonardo DiCaprio doesn’t win Best Actor, it will prove the voting is rigged. Cate Blanchett has proven in every speech that Jasmine’s huge ego in Blue Jasmine is equal to her own and playing a part close home isn’t acting at all.

    • tommy musni says:

      DiCaprio should’ve won for Django but I didn’t think he’d get award for playing slave owner. Just like people like 12 Years A Slave because we all hate slavery. 12 Years A Slave could’ve just as easily have been watching John McCain in a Vietnam prison camp. It’s sad. But where’s the depth?

    • Gayle Golden says:

      another factor in a win for cate blanchett may ber close friendship with the late Philip Seymour Hoffman.

  16. Gayle Golden says:

    One can also say that Judi Dench is one of the greatest actresses in the wold who has never won an oscar for best actress and deserves it! I saw both movies and I still cannot understand why Judi’s performance, subtle, intelligent, funny and moving has not been more universally praised. Even cynics like Bill Maher have talked about the power of this film and her performance. She becomes the character and you forget she’s acting. Throughout the worl audiences have been moved by her performance. Of all the films I have seen this year it has amde the most lasting impact. Regardless of the outcome Sunday, I believe Judi has given a wonderful performance by a superlative actress at the height of her career.

    • Susan says:

      I completely agree with you that Dame Judi Dench is one of the best actresses around. However, she actually did win an Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for Shakespeare in Love, where she only appeared for 8 minutes (she’s that awesome).

  17. Dex says:

    “Geez…some of us just want to see the best performances rewarded and we don’t give a crap what color or what ethnicity or what age, etc. anybody is.”

    Previous Oscar wins have proven that the Academy isn’t always influenced by “best performances.” Votes are based on a number of silly factors and performance is rarely one of them.

  18. GH says:

    No Best Actress winner in the last 20 years has won NYFC, LAFC, NSFC, almost all of the regional critics awards, Golden Globe, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA and not win the Oscar. The Dylan Farrow drama has nothing to do with Blanchett. It obviously did not impact BAFTA.

    Cate Blanchett is considered one of the finest actresses of our time and she has yet to win the Oscar for Best Actress. She is overdue. She deserves it.

    The year Adrien Brody won, the precursors were split. Daniel Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson won BFCA and LAFC. Nicholson won the Globe, while DDL won SAG and BAFTA. Adrien Brody won NSFC, Boston, France’s Cesare Award. Amy Adams only wins are a Globe and a secondary BFCA award in Comedy.

  19. MTN says:

    I find it interesting that some have said its too soon for Sandra Bullock to win a second Oscar. But nobody is saying that about Jennifer Lawrence, and it would be two consecutive wins for her. I think at her young age, its a little soon to heap too many Oscars her way. I do hope the new voting system allows “Gravity” to win Best Picture. “Its Time.”

  20. HawkTime says:

    DiCaprio should win for best actor. His performance kept me thoroughly entertained for three hours in that movie – no potty breaks, no nothing, I was riveted to the screen watching what he would do next. None of the other contenders did that. BRAVO!

  21. David K says:

    Adams over Blanchett? Please. Totally faulty reasoning used as well.

  22. Gayle Golden says:

    It Is A shame Judi Dench was not well enough to campaign. Her brilliantly subtle, intelligent and touching performance reflects a wonderful actress at the height of her career. While Cate Blanchett was good, her more fashionable appearance and flashier role does not outshine. Judi’s great perfomance. it is a master class in acting!

  23. Tammy says:

    Chiwetel Ejiofor should win for best actor for his role in “12 Years a Slave.” His performance was PHENOMENAL!!! However, he will not win the award because they will give it to Matthew McConaughey because he lost so much weight and transformed his appearance so drastically. Yes, he did a great job in the movie, but it wasn’t phenomenal. The award should hinge on performance more than appearance. They will probably give an award to Lupita Nyong’o for “12 Years a Slave,” and so they won’t give it to Ejoifor because they won’t ‘double dip’ for a movie that has people of color when it comes to the categories for individuals. The movie itself will be allowed to win more than one award, but they will not give more than one award to actors of color in the same movie. I was hoping that both Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer would win Oscars for their performances in “The Help.” But when Spencer won as Best Supporting Actress, I knew Davis would not win because the Academy will not give awards to two actors of color who were in a movie together. If it has happened before, someone please let me know. I’d LOVE to be wrong about that.

    • Daryle says:

      I am SO tired of this “theme”, I could scream. When have two Asians won? Two Hispanics? When have two old people won? Two people with disabilities won? Just how far does one want to take these arguments about prejudices? Geez…some of us just want to see the best performances rewarded and we don’t give a crap what color or what ethnicity or what age, etc. anybody is. I don’t even know what the race or ethnicity is for the people nominated for editing, sound, song, score, costumes, make-up, screenplay, etc. are, AND I DON’T CARE. Who did the best job? That’s all that matters, and there will not always be agreement. And as for The Help (a movie I loved) – frankly, I thought Davis was the one that gave the Oscar-deserving performance, as opposed to Spencer, and I don’t recall who the other nominees even were at this point. So sue me.

      • Tammy says:

        It’s not a comment about prejudice per se. I, too, wish there were more actresses of color, i.e. Asian, Hispanic, and especially Native American. I’m simply stating the way the voting has historically run: There will not – historically – be two winners ‘of color’ from the same movie. Point, blank, period. As I stated, I would LOVE to be wrong about that. But I CARE because it is a shame that this type of Oscar voting is the norm, and not an old standard. So, nope. Won’t sue ya for having an opinion. Just sharing my own thoughts. (Which is what this whole forum is about, right?)
        Also, I did not get a chance to see one of my favorite actresses – Sandra Bullock – in “Gravity.” But I hear it was wonderful. I won’t have a thing to say about it if she wins or doesn’t win because I don’t know what her performance was like.
        And another thought: I’m a ‘Benaddict,’ so I can’t wait to see Benedict Cumberbatch at the awards. And to whomever he gives and award: You’re twice a winner, baby! Woot!
        (*Ahem* Excuse me. Just a girly side thought.)

      • First of all, Tammy, how many times can you say the same thing over and over in one comment? Believe me, we got your point. Second, Viola Davis should have been nominated for a supporting role as opposed to a lead role. Third, Meryl Streep was amazing and deserved to win.

  24. Does anyone really care who wins? :-)

    • Sam says:

      Yes!!!! Why are you on this board if you don’t care!

    • Daryle says:

      I do…for at least some of the awards. I especially like to see good writers rewarded…and I’m gonna predict with some degree of confidence that these two predictors (and some others) are wrong about the best adapted screenplay. I think it’s entirely possible that Linklater, Delpy and Hawke will win for Before Midnight – the third movie in a critically acclaimed trilogy. “Lay” audiences have not had a chance to see it, but I think the industry is well-aware of it, along with most of the critics.

      • Tanya says:

        Before Midnight was beautifully written and an honest look at those characters and the reality of a relationships in your early 40s. I very much admire Julie Delpy and would like to see her talent rewarded. And there’s that Linkletter link between Matthew McC. and Delpy.

      • Tammy says:

        I’m trying to reply to Stella Granos, but there wasn’t a reply button above her comment so… (That’s weird and I really did look for one…)
        Anyway, she said “how many times can you say the same thing over and over in one comment?” Well, let’s see: I mentioned it once in my original post, and then again in a second post defending my statement. So, that’s twice, but not in the same comment. (Unless there was a weird thing again and my comment and then my reply to someone else showed up back to back. If that happened, I apologize. Finding the reply button on some of these things is a bit tricky. At least on my end.)
        And, Stella, I do agree that Viola Davis should have been in the supporting category, but then Octavia Spencer would have lost. *Sigh* What to do, what to do.
        And… I did see Meryl Streep in “The Iron Lady” – (I think that was the name of it.) She was brilliant, and I just knew she would win.
        (And this is, again, just my opinion, but I think she is just a weeeeeeee bit overrated. Streep does a fantastic job, but a lot of it is because at her level of ‘A list,’ she gets all the really, really, really meaty roles.)
        I LOVE Streep to death, but…
        (Have I committed a sin by saying something not-so-nice about Meryl Streep? Yikes!)

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