How one set of predictions in 10 major Emmy categories fared
So, over the past two weeks, I made Emmy predictions in 10 of the major categories. I didn’t really think about how well I expected to do, but in retrospect, averaging 83% (5 out of 6) would have been nice, and below 67% (4 out of 6) would have felt lousy.
Here are the results (mistakes in bold):
Drama: 5 for 6
One man’s best guesses: “The Americans,” “Breaking Bad,” “Downton Abbey,” “Game of Thrones,” “Homeland,” “House of Cards.”
Missed on: I took a gamble leaving “Mad Men” off the list and paid for it.
Comedy: 6 for 6
One man’s best guesses: “30 Rock,” “The Big Bang Theory,” “Girls,” “Louie,” “Modern Family,” “Veep.”
Missed on: None. Easy-peasy lemon-squeezy.
Drama actor: 5 for 6
One man’s best guesses: Steve Buscemi, Bryan Cranston, Jeff Daniels, Damian Lewis, Jon Hamm, Kevin Spacey.
Missed on: Hugh Bonneville. The Emmys didn’t exactly abandon “Boardwalk Empire” (10 nominations), but I thought their love for Buscemi would be stronger than it was for bonny Bonneville.
Drama actress: 4 for 6 (seven nominated)
One man’s best guesses: Claire Danes, Julianna Margulies, Tatiana Maslany, Elisabeth Moss, Kerry Washington, Robin Wright.
Missed on: Connie Britton, Michelle Dockery and Vera Farmiga. I thought Washington would take too much of the soapy broadcast vote to permit Britton’s nominations, that Dockery’s tame plotline would undermine her, and that the power of Margulies and a showstopper performance by Maslany would sideline Farmiga. I don’t believe any single Emmy candidate was more deserving this year than Maslany.
Comedy actor: 4 for 6
One man’s best guesses: Alec Baldwin, Louis C.K., Don Cheadle, Jon Cryer, Jake Johnson, Jim Parsons.
Missed on: Jason Bateman, Matt LeBlanc. I didn’t think Bateman’s return on “Arrested” would resonate as much as it did, and I just never hear anyone talk about “Episodes.” Turns out, Cryer’s days as an Emmy favorite have gone on sabbatical, and Johnson’s move into the “New Girl” male spotlight wasn’t enough.
Comedy actress: 5 for 6
One man’s best guesses: Lena Dunham, Edie Falco, Tina Fey, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Melissa McCarthy, Amy Poehler.
Missed on: Laura Dern. It was a close call, but I bet that the high-profile McCarthy would return to the Emmy noms over the well-regarded Dern, whom the Academy overlooked a year ago.
Drama supporting actor: 3 for 6
One man’s best guesses: Peter Dinklage, Noah Emmerich, Jack Huston, Mandy Patinkin, Aaron Paul, Sam Waterston.
Missed on: Bobby Cannavale, Jonathan Banks and Jim Carter (even though Banks was on my wishlist). Just a brutal category to handicap.
Drama supporting actress: 4 for 6
One man’s best guesses: Christine Baranski, Anna Gunn, Christina Hendricks, Elizabeth McGovern, Monica Potter, Maggie Smith.
Missed on: Morena Baccarin and Emilia Clarke, because I thought McGovern’s work on “Downton” and Potter’s on “Parenthood” (accompanied by noteworthy press) would be right up the Academy’s alley.
Comedy supporting actor: 4 of 6
One man’s best guesses: Ty Burrell, Adam Driver, Max Greenfield, Tony Hale, Ed O’Neill, Eric Stonestreet.
Missed on: Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Bill Hader. I figured one of the “Modern Family” quartet would drop out, but I just didn’t think it would be the one who won the Emmy last year. And I knew passing on Hader was risky, but the power of “Saturday Night Live” in this era always surprises me. I also thought Greenfield would benefit from Johnson moving into lead. But proud of getting Hale right.
Comedy supporting actress: 3 of 6 (seven nominated)
One man’s best guesses: Mayim Bialik, Julie Bowen, Kaley Cuoco, Sofia Vergara, Jessica Walter, Allison Williams.
Missed on: Jane Lynch, Merrit Wever, Jane Krakowski, Anna Chlumsky. Like drama supporting actor, this one was touch. I’m mystified by the Academy’s ambivalence toward Cuoco, but I guess there’s no debate about it now. I thought Williams would ride the “Girls” bandwagon to success and that Walter would be welcomed back after a long absence. Instead, Wever got a return nomination (as did Lynch after a year off), Krakowski a farewell and Chlumsky a hail lady, well met.
Total: 43 of 60 (72 percent). Somewhere between nice and lousy, and a little farther from nice than I’d like to be. Better and not worse luck next year …