You will be redirected back to your article in seconds

Economic prophets divine pic profits

Analysts can estimate earnings over 10 years

B.O. reality gets lost in perception

Studios pay analysts handsomely to project a film’s downstream earnings during its first 10 years of release, but bizzers also can use rough figures to estimate a pic’s ancillary prospects.

Generally speaking, a pic that grosses around $100 million domestically figures to earn around $75 million to $80 million on homevideo during the 10-year timeframe. That same film could earn around $16 million or $17 million in domestic pay TV deals and $15 million in domestic free-to-air TV deals, broadly speaking. That includes broadcast, cable and pay cable players.

If that same film earns in the $140 million range internationally, it could add an estimated $50 million (or 36% of the international box office) in homevid sales. Pay TV could amount to approximately $17 million (12%) internationally and some $18 million to $20 million (roughly 14%) for free TV.

Relativity Media’s “Mirror Mirror,” for example, has earned $65 million domestically and $111 million internationally since its March 30 release. Based on those numbers, Relativity can estimate a domestic and international homevid take of around $50 million and $40 million, respectively. The pic also figures to earn another $11 million through domestic pay TV deals and $13 million through international pay TV deals. Domestic and international free TV deals could earn around $10 million and $15 million each.

But these rough numbers vary by genre. Comedy, for example, has a hard time translating with international auds, while studios count on big-budget actioners to perform well globally. Merchandising might bring in a couple of million dollars per film on average, but earn exponentially more for family fare. On top of that, factors like marketing and even time of year play heavily into a film’s grosses.

More Film

  • Phantom Thread Daniel-Day-Lewis

    Watch the Stunning Trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis' Final Film, 'Phantom Thread'

    B.O. reality gets lost in perception Studios pay analysts handsomely to project a film’s downstream earnings during its first 10 years of release, but bizzers also can use rough figures to estimate a pic’s ancillary prospects. Generally speaking, a pic that grosses around $100 million domestically figures to earn around $75 million to $80 million […]

  • Judith Light

    Judith Light, Roberta Colindrez to Star in Drama 'Ms. White Light' (EXCLUSIVE)

    B.O. reality gets lost in perception Studios pay analysts handsomely to project a film’s downstream earnings during its first 10 years of release, but bizzers also can use rough figures to estimate a pic’s ancillary prospects. Generally speaking, a pic that grosses around $100 million domestically figures to earn around $75 million to $80 million […]

  • Negative Space animated short by Max

    Award-Winning Animated Short 'Negative Space' Makes Online Debut

    B.O. reality gets lost in perception Studios pay analysts handsomely to project a film’s downstream earnings during its first 10 years of release, but bizzers also can use rough figures to estimate a pic’s ancillary prospects. Generally speaking, a pic that grosses around $100 million domestically figures to earn around $75 million to $80 million […]

  • Paddington 2

    'Paddington 2' Producers Seek to Exit Distribution Deal With Weinstein Company

    B.O. reality gets lost in perception Studios pay analysts handsomely to project a film’s downstream earnings during its first 10 years of release, but bizzers also can use rough figures to estimate a pic’s ancillary prospects. Generally speaking, a pic that grosses around $100 million domestically figures to earn around $75 million to $80 million […]

  • Ashley Judd

    Ashley Judd Sets First TV Interview After Harvey Weinstein Allegation

    B.O. reality gets lost in perception Studios pay analysts handsomely to project a film’s downstream earnings during its first 10 years of release, but bizzers also can use rough figures to estimate a pic’s ancillary prospects. Generally speaking, a pic that grosses around $100 million domestically figures to earn around $75 million to $80 million […]

  • 'Suburbicon' film premiere

    George Clooney 'Glad' Academy Took Action Against Weinstein: 'It's Long Overdue'

    B.O. reality gets lost in perception Studios pay analysts handsomely to project a film’s downstream earnings during its first 10 years of release, but bizzers also can use rough figures to estimate a pic’s ancillary prospects. Generally speaking, a pic that grosses around $100 million domestically figures to earn around $75 million to $80 million […]

  • 4106_D025_00081_R2_CROPKristin Scott Thomas and Gary Oldman

    'Darkest Hour' Gets Endorsed by Churchill Family, Experts

    B.O. reality gets lost in perception Studios pay analysts handsomely to project a film’s downstream earnings during its first 10 years of release, but bizzers also can use rough figures to estimate a pic’s ancillary prospects. Generally speaking, a pic that grosses around $100 million domestically figures to earn around $75 million to $80 million […]

More From Our Brands

Access exclusive content