That was quick. The summer high caused by last weekend’s robust new entries isn’t expected to last long, as Father’s Day weekend’s debut pair — “Rock of Ages” and “That’s My Boy” — are both expected to land with a modest thud in the mid-teens domestically.
Neither new film is projected to come close to dethroning Paramount-DreamWorks Animation’s “Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted,” which collected $60 million last weekend. If “Madagascar” drops 40% — a decent (and typical) hold for toons — the film would collect at least another $35 million through Sunday.
Fox’s “Prometheus,” meanwhile,” should retain its No. 2 Stateside position, landing in the low $20 millions.
“Rock of Ages,” from Warner Bros. and New Line, and Sony’s “That’s My Boy” could hit north of the $20 million mark, based mostly on popularity of stars Tom Cruise and Adam Sandler, respectively. But bizzers aren’t betting too heavily that either film will overperform, with first-choice bids among auds just OK as of Thursday afternoon.
The lack of major support from the frame’s wide openers won’t be as detrimental to year-to-year B.O. comps as it could be, however. This time last year, the domestic weekend total, led by “Green Lantern, with its $53 million opening, reached $153.8 million — a not-too-impressive bar, really.
In the specialty arena, Focus Features’ “Moonrise Kingdom,” which has cumed $4.4 million Stateside, expands to 178 locations.
And Sony Pictures Classics is bullish on period comedy “Hysteria,” broadening the pic to 218 engagements — more than double its count last weekend. Cume is less than $700,000 in four weeks.
“Rock of Ages,” which bows at 3,450 U.S. locations, including 35 digital Imax runs, also launches day-and-date in such major overseas territories as Australia, Germany, Russia and the U.K. Other significant international expansions include “Prometheus,” launching throughout most of Latin America, and “Snow White and the Huntsman,” which adds France, Japan and Russia to its trove.
“Rock of Ages,” budgeted at $75 million, is expected to play best with female audiences; Sony’s latest R-rated Sandler laffer, which cost $65 million, should skew toward men over 25.
Warners was faced with finding a way to attract men to “Rock.” The studio sought to do that with its music-focused marketing campaign, which centered on ’80s hair bands like Def Leppard and Poison. Aim was especially to lure men over 25.
Even with modest openings, “Rock” and “Boy” could earn respectable multiples, given how musicals and Sandler pics usually play out. “Rock” helmer Adam Shankman’s “Hairspray,” which had an opening weekend of $27 million, ended up cuming more than four times that number ($118 million). Sandler’s most recent (and critically panned) film, “Jack and Jill,” had a near three-times multiple, cuming $74 million after debuting to $25 million domestically.
Beyond the weekend’s top two holdovers, “Madagascar” and “Prometheus,” Universal’s “Snow White and the Huntsman,” with $106.6 million domestically, has been enjoying solid mid-week biz. That’s after “Huntsman” dropped a so-so 59% during its second weekend.
Sony’s “Men in Black 3” has reached north of $140 million in Stateside grosses, while Disney-Marvel’s “The Avengers” remains a considerable weekend player, with a domestic cume of $576.6 million.