Oscar nominees: Best Picture

Why it’ll win: While it may be one of the most grossly plied cliches about Hollywood filmmaking, the Academy loves to favor a Holocaust — or in this case, post-WWII — era pic. And Kate Winslet’s Golden Globe-winning performance as supporting actress (she’s nominated as lead actress by Oscar) can only further cement the film’s award chances.

Maybe not: It’s not the critical darling that “Slumdog” is and the bulk of “Reader’s” accolades pointed toward Winslet’s powerful performance and not the film as a collective whole. Stephen Daldry’s deft directing was also slighted by Globes, an award that went to “Slumdog’s” Danny Boyle, and historically, director props usually follows what’s chosen as top picture.

Critical quote: “Director Stephen Daldry and playwright David Hare … have done something profoundly right in bringing Bernhard Schlink’s controversial German novel to the screen: They’ve made it personal,” says Peter Travers, Rolling Stone.

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