Oscar: Adapted screenplay

Why he’ll win: Because no one’s better when it comes to crafting screenplays about real people — after all, he was the writer behind both the actress and actor Oscar wins in 2006 (Helen Mirren in “The Queen,” and Forest Whittaker for “The Last King of Scotland”).

Maybe not: Since he adapted his own play, maybe he didn’t work as hard as most of his fellow nominees.

Critical quote: “Formidably involving, and the reasons start not with expert co-stars Frank Langella and Michael Sheen or their strong supporting cast or even the skills of Ron Howard, but with the gifts and vision of Morgan, who wrote the screenplay as well as the play,” says Kenneth Turan of the L.A. Times.

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