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Weekend Box Office Preview
November 22, 2002

HOW WELL WILL ‘HARRY’ HOLD?

“Harry Potter 2” is hoping to improve on the hold of its predecessor. Any drop-off less than 40% these days is the key to sustaining November-December B.O. success. Here’s a look at other recent year-end family pics’ second-week declines:

2ND WEEKEND DROPS*
Pic 

                                  B.O. Decline
Pokemon     -60%
101 Dalmatians     -58%
Toy Story 2     -52%
Harry Potter     -36%
Monsters, Inc.     -27%
Lord of the Rings     -18%
The Grinch     -5%
*for fall-holiday pics whose bow exceeded $30+ million

BOWING
Movie Title Engagements
Die Another Day (MGM) 3,314
Friday After Next (New Line) 1,616
The Emperor’s Club (U) 808
Interview With the Assassin
(Magnolia)
18
The Quiet American (Miramax) 13
Personal Velocity (MGM) NY 2
Talk to Her (SPC) NY, LA 2
Solaris (reissue) (Keno) NY 1
O Fantasm (Picture This) NY 1

YEAR TO DATE
(in billions of $)
6.9


’01
(thru Nov. 18)

7.8
+12%


’02
(thru Nov. 17)

1. Die Another Day

2. Harry Potter 2

3. Friday After Next

4. 8 Mile

5. The Santa Clause 2

AOL Moviefone derives its Top Five Most Requested films from activity on its Web site. The Top Five have historically been 80% accurate in predicting the weekend’s top five movies at the box office.

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RELEASE DATES AND CHANGES
As of Nov. 21
Pic New date Old date
COWBOY
Devils on the Doorstep Dec. 18  
Il Posto (re) Dec. 20  
Morvern Caller Dec. 20  
Ikiru (re) Jan. 3  
DREAMWORKS
Head of State March 28  
IFC
XX/XY April 11 Feb. 14
LIONS GATE
Mondays in the Sun April 11  
MIRAMAX
The Human Stain TBA 1st. qtr.
SONY
Darkness Falls Jan. 24 Jan. 10
STRAND
Smokers Only Dec. 20 Nov. 22
Red indicates new entry                     All dates 2002 unless noted
Source: Nielsen EDI Filmsource

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