Global box office will grow 34% to $24 billion in 10 years, largely due to rising ticket prices and worldwide multiplex proliferation, according to a new report by Baskerville Communications.
The 320-page study predicts a relatively modest 3.4% increase in worldwide attendance over the next 10 years, but expects an increase in average ticket price from $1.29 this year to $1.67 in 2007 to account for the majority of the box office gains.
Global admissions have actually fallen dramatically in recent years as older theaters closed and TV penetration increased in emerging markets.
The U.S., which already has a well-developed cinema infrastructure, will see a drop in its share of global screens from 30% in 1998 to 27% by 2007, as other territories start to catch up, the report projects.
At the same time, the Stateside share of global box office will drop from 37% to 34%. The biggest increases in B.O. share are expected in Europe and Latin America.
Territories expected to see the fastest growth in screen count are Indonesia, Japan, Brazil and South Korea.
Japan currently has the highest average ticket price ($8.72), followed by Sweden ($7.80), the Netherlands ($6.08), the U.K. ($5.96) and Germany ($5.85). The U.S. average is $4.65. At the other end of the spectrum, the price of admission in India is just 20 cents.
Sherman Oaks-based Baskerville, which publishes nine semi-monthly newsletters including Variety Deal Memo, also provides customized research and market studies.