Analysts see varying ad growth

The Television Bureau of Advertising recently surveyed eight Wall Street analysts seeking their forecasts for advertising growth in 1993 and found widely differing results.

According to the survey, local advertising in 1993 will rise between 4% and 8 %; spot advertising will go up between 3% and 8%; network revenues will grow between 3% and 7%; national syndication will increase between 8% and 11%; and cable revenues will soar between 10% and 15%.

The TVB found that those on the high end of the scale expected an economic turnaround early in 1993 and cited indications that money targeted for non-television media would return to the tube.

Moreover, TVB sought input from the advertising firm of McCann-Erickson and investment banker Veronis & Suhler for their predictions on advertising revenues for the coming year.

As for local advertising, McCann forecast a rise of 6.5%, while Veronis said that segment would grow 7.6%. Spot revenues, per McCann, would go up 7%, while Veronis said they’d be up just 4.8%.

McCann predicted network revenues would climb 6%; Veronis said network revs will go up 3.3%. National syndication should go up 7%, per McCann, with Veronis forecasting a 10.7% increase there. Cable will be up 9%, said McCann; Veronis said cable will rise 12.9%.

ASTA head Tim Duncan predicts an 8% rise in syndication revenues.

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